Hobbyist / Statistical Forecaster (AI Research Project)

2 weeks ago


United States Weekday AI Full time $70,000 - $100,000 per year

This role is for one of our clients

A leading AI research team is seeking independent forecasters to contribute to a project focused on enhancing machine reasoning and predictive performance. Ideal for individuals active in forecasting platforms or competitive prediction markets who want to apply their forecasting skills toward improving next-generation AI systems.

Requirements
Key Responsibilities
  • Generate structured, probability-based forecasts across domains such as economics, finance, geopolitics, and global trends
  • Document reasoning, assumptions, data sources, and statistical logic behind each forecast
  • Use models, heuristics, and analytical frameworks to inform predictions
  • Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI research contributors
  • Provide feedback on forecast prompts, evaluation criteria, and question design
Ideal Qualifications
  • Active forecaster on platforms such as Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, Numerai, Kaggle, etc.
  • Competitive forecasting record, leaderboard ranking, or documented tournament performance
  • Strong understanding of statistical thinking, probabilistic modeling, and uncertainty analysis
  • Ability to clearly express reasoning and methodologies in writing
  • Self-motivated, analytical, and intellectually curious
Project Details
  • Fully remote, asynchronous work — set your own schedule
  • Expected time commitment: 10–20 hours per week
Compensation & Terms
  • Compensation range: $105–140 per hour (U.S.-based candidates)
  • Independent contractor engagement


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